Electoral Mathematics
|
In the 2016 presidential election there were a lot of surprises right up to the end. The polling data from before election day all seemed to suggest that Hillary Clinton would become the president elect. With Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday many Americans have been left scratching their heads at just how exactly this happened. The election results can be explained through voter turnout, demographics, and the effect of 3rd party candidates. The relationship between the electoral college vote and the popular vote is also relevant in this election.
|
Demographics:
While Clinton won the key demographic groups her campaign targeted, she under performed President Obama across the board, even among women, according to exit poll data. Nearly 88% of African-American voters supported Clinton, versus 8% for President-elect Trump. While that may seem like a large margin, it is not near as big as Obama over Romney in in 2012. Obama locked 93% of the black vote to Romney's only 7%.
Evaluating the Hispanic vote 65% backed Clinton, while 29% voted for Trump. In 2012, Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote and Romney 27%.
When it came to women voters Clinton won 54% compared to Trump onl winning 42%. Even though 70% of voters said that Trump's treatment of women bothered them, they still did not back Clinton despite her possible feat of breaking the glass ceiling. Compared to Obama, Obama won 55% of the women vote.
Electoral College:
This 2016 Election had many projections for a Clinton win, yet despite losing in the popular vote won the electoral college with 290 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 electoral votes. Prior to George W. Bush in 2000, only three other candidates, Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, and Grover Cleveland, all inn the 19th century, had won the popular vote yet lost to the electorate.
While Clinton won the key demographic groups her campaign targeted, she under performed President Obama across the board, even among women, according to exit poll data. Nearly 88% of African-American voters supported Clinton, versus 8% for President-elect Trump. While that may seem like a large margin, it is not near as big as Obama over Romney in in 2012. Obama locked 93% of the black vote to Romney's only 7%.
Evaluating the Hispanic vote 65% backed Clinton, while 29% voted for Trump. In 2012, Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote and Romney 27%.
When it came to women voters Clinton won 54% compared to Trump onl winning 42%. Even though 70% of voters said that Trump's treatment of women bothered them, they still did not back Clinton despite her possible feat of breaking the glass ceiling. Compared to Obama, Obama won 55% of the women vote.
Electoral College:
This 2016 Election had many projections for a Clinton win, yet despite losing in the popular vote won the electoral college with 290 Electoral College votes to Clinton's 232 electoral votes. Prior to George W. Bush in 2000, only three other candidates, Andrew Jackson, Samuel Tilden, and Grover Cleveland, all inn the 19th century, had won the popular vote yet lost to the electorate.